# 11-082/4 (2011-05-17)

Author(s)
Monica Billio, University of Venice, GRETA Assoc. and School for Advanced Studies in Venice; Roberto Casarin, University of Venice, GRETA Assoc. and School for Advanced Studies in Venice; Francesco Ravazzolo, Norges Bank; Herman K. van Dijk, Erasmus University Rotterdam
Keywords:
Density Forecast Combination, Stock data
JEL codes:
C11, C15, C53, E37

We summarize the general combination approach by Billio et al. [2010]. In the combination model the weights follow logistic autoregressive processes, change over time and their dynamics are possible driven by the past forecasting performances of the predictive densities. For illustrative purposes we apply it to combine White Noise and GARCH models to forecast the Amsterdam Exchange index and use the combined predictive forecasts in an investment asset allocation exercise.