The purpose of the paper is to discuss ten things potential users should know about the limits of the Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC) representation for estimating and forecasting time-varying conditional correlations. The reasons given for caution about the use of DCC include the following: DCC represents the dynamic conditional covariances of the standardized residuals, and hence does not yield dynamic conditional correlations; DCC is stated rather than derived; DCC has no moments; DCC does not have testable regularity conditions; DCC yields inconsistent two step estimators; DCC has no asymptotic properties; DCC is not a special case of GARCC, which has testable regularity conditions and standard asymptotic properties; DCC is not dynamic empirically as the effect of news is typically extremely small; DCC cannot be distinguished empirically from diagonal BEKK in small systems; and DCC may be a useful filter or a diagnostic check, but it is not a model.
# 13-048/III (2013-03-21)
- Massimiliano Caporin, University of Padova; Michael McAleer, Erasmus University Rotterdam, University of Madrid, Kyoto University
- DCC, BEKK, GARCC, Stated representation, Derived model, Conditional covariances, Conditional correlations, Regularity conditions, Moments, Two step estimators, Assumed properties, Asymptotic properties, Filter, Diagnostic check
- JEL codes:
- C18, C32, C58, G17