# 13-077/III (2013-06-03)

Author(s)
Michael McAleer, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Complutense University of Madrid, Kyoto University; John Suen, Chinese University of Hong Kong; Wing Keung Wong, Hong Kong Baptist University
Keywords:
Technical analysis, moving average, buy-and-hold strategy, dot-com bubble, Asian financial crisis, sub-prime crisis, moving linear regression, volatility
JEL codes:
G1, C0

This paper explores the characteristics associated with the formation of bubbles that occurred in the Hong Kong stock market in 1997 and 2007, as well as the 2000 dot-com bubble of Nasdaq. It examines the profitability of Technical Analysis (TA) strategies generating buy and sell signals with knowing and without trading rules. The empirical results show that by applying long and short strategies during the bubble formation and short strategies after the bubble burst, it not only produces returns that are significantly greater than buy and hold strategies, but also produces greater wealth compared with TA strategies without trading rules. We conclude these bubble detection signals help investors generate greater wealth from applying appropriate long and short Moving Average (MA) strategies.