# 13-100/VIII (2013-07-30; 2013-08-01)

Author(s)
M. Bockarjova, VU University Amsterdam; P. Rietveld, VU University Amsterdam; J.S.A. Knockaert, VU University Amsterdam
Keywords:
stated preferences, revealed preferences, non-monetary costs, innovation
JEL codes:
C010, C330, D120, D490, D910, R410

In this paper, we apply a dynamic innovation diffusion framework to model adoption of full electric vehicles where we explicitly distinguish three major phases of adoption: introduction, growth and maturity. We combine this approach with an SP study to elicit individual preferences for conventional, hybrid and full electric vehicles. We apply a nested logit model to estimate the preferences for EVs based on the total costs of ownership approach that includes monetary and non-monetary costs of owing a vehicle.
With negative estimates of WTP for hybrid vehicles (of about €900 on a yearly basis), our results suggest abolishment of subsidization of hybrid vehicles as they potentially crowd out EV adoption. Besides, EVs need to be subsidized on average at €2,000 per year, and this amount is decreasing in the process of vehicle adoption. Time costs associated with rapid charging are a substantial hindrance to EV adoption with average value of time of €63 per hour, increasing for each subsequent consumer segment from €48 to €122 per hour. Environmental costs of CO2 reductions are valued far above the market average at €160 per ton, but determine EV choices only at a later stage of adoption. Finally, towing potential is valued on average at €540 per year and it is about the same for all consumer segments throughout the adoption phases. Policy implications are discussed involving a mix of structural and monetary incentives.