# 14-037/III (2014-03-17)

Manabu Asai, Soka University, Japan; Michael McAleer, National Tsing Hua University, Taiwan, Econometric Institute, Erasmus School of Economics, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Complutense University of Madrid, Spain
Dimension reduction; Factor Model; Multivariate Stochastic Volatility; Leverage Effects; Long Memory; Realized Volatility
JEL codes:
C32, C53, C58, G17

Modelling covariance structures is known to suffer from the curse of dimensionality. In order to avoid this problem for forecasting, the authors propose a new factor multivariate stochastic volatility (fMSV) model for realized covariance measures that accommodates asymmetry and long memory. Using the basic structure of the fMSV model, the authors extend the dynamic correlation MSV model, the conditional/stochastic Wishart autoregressive models, the matrix-exponential MSV model, and the Cholesky MSV model. Empirical results for 7 financial asset returns for US stock returns indicate that the new fMSV models outperform existing dynamic conditional correlation models for forecasting future covariances. Among the new fMSV models, the Cholesky MSV model with long memory and asymmetry shows stable and better forecasting performance for one-day, five-day and ten-day horizons in the periods before, during and after the global financial crisis.