Amsterdam Econometrics Seminars and Workshop Series

Hiroaki Kaido (Boston University)
Friday, 13 May 2016

Call an economic model incomplete if it does not generate a probabilistic prediction even given knowledge of all parameter values. We propose a method of inference about unknown parameters for such models that is robust to heterogeneity and dependence of unknown form. The key is a Central Limit Theorem for belief functions; robust con dence regions are then constructed in a fashion paralleling the classical approach. Monte Carlo simulations support tractability of the method and demonstrate its enhanced robustness relative to existing methods. Joint with Larry G. Epstein and Kyoungwon Seo.

Keywords: Partial identi cation, entry games, incomplete models, belief functions,
central limit theorem.