• Graduate program
    • Why Tinbergen Institute?
    • Program Structure
    • Courses
    • Course Registration
    • Facilities
    • Admissions
    • Recent PhD Placements
  • Research
  • News
  • Events
    • Summer School
      • Behavioral Macro and Complexity
      • Econometrics and Data Science Methods for Business and Economics and Finance
      • Experimenting with Communication – A Hands-on Summer School
      • Inequalities in Health and Healthcare
      • Introduction in Genome-Wide Data Analysis
      • Research on Productivity, Trade, and Growth
      • Summer School Business Data Science Program
    • Events Calendar
    • Tinbergen Institute Lectures
    • Annual Tinbergen Institute Conference
    • Events Archive
  • Summer School
  • Alumni
  • Times

Harvey, A. and Koopman, S.J. (1993). Forecasting hourly electricity demand using time–varying splines Journal of the American Statistical Association, 88(424):1228--1236.

  • Journal
    Journal of the American Statistical Association

A method for modeling a changing periodic pattern is developed. The use of time-varying splines enables this to be done relatively parsimoniously. The method is applied in a model used to forecast hourly electricity demand, with the periodic movements being intradaily or intraweekly. The full model contains other components, including a temperature response, which is also modeled using splines.