• Graduate program
    • Why Tinbergen Institute?
    • Program Structure
    • Courses
    • Course Registration
    • Facilities
    • Admissions
    • Recent PhD Placements
  • Research
  • News
  • Events
    • Summer School
      • Behavioral Macro and Complexity
      • Econometrics and Data Science Methods for Business and Economics and Finance
      • Experimenting with Communication – A Hands-on Summer School
      • Inequalities in Health and Healthcare
      • Introduction in Genome-Wide Data Analysis
      • Research on Productivity, Trade, and Growth
      • Summer School Business Data Science Program
    • Events Calendar
    • Tinbergen Institute Lectures
    • Annual Tinbergen Institute Conference
    • Events Archive
  • Summer School
  • Alumni
  • Times

Andonov, A. and Rauh, JoshuaD. (2021). The Return Expectations of Public Pension Funds Review of Financial Studies, :.


  • Journal
    Review of Financial Studies

The return expectations of public pension funds are positively related to cross-sectional differences in past performance. This positive relation operates through the expected risk premium, rather than the expected risk-free rate or inflation rate. Pension funds act on their beliefs and adjust their portfolio composition accordingly. Persistent investment skills, risk-taking, efforts to reduce costly rebalancing, and fiscal incentives from unfunded liabilities cannot fully explain the reliance of expectations on past performance. The results are consistent with extrapolative expectations, as the dependence on past returns is greater when executives have personally experienced longer performance histories with the fund.