• Graduate program
    • Why Tinbergen Institute?
    • Program Structure
    • Courses
    • Course Registration
    • Recent PhD Placements
    • Facilities
    • Admissions
  • Research
  • News
  • Events
    • Summer School
      • Crash Course in Experimental Economics
      • Introduction in Genome-Wide Data Analysis
      • Research on Productivity, Trade, and Growth
      • Econometric Methods for Forecasting and Data Science
  • Times

Koopman, S., Mallee, M., and van der Wel, M. (2010c). Analyzing the term structure of interest rates using the dynamic nelson-siegel model with time-varying parameters. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 28:329-343.


  • Journal
    Journal of Business and Economic Statistics

In this article we introduce time-varying parameters in the dynamic Nelson-Siegel yield curve model for the simultaneous analysis and forecasting of interest rates of different maturities. The Nelson-Siegel model has been recently reformulated as a dynamic factor model with vector autoregressive factors. We extend this framework in two directions. First, the factor loadings in the Nelson-Siegel yield model depend on a single loading parameter that we treat as the fourth latent factor. Second, we specify the overall volatility as a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) process. We present empirical evidence of considerable increases in within-sample goodness of fit for these advances in the dynamic Nelson-Siegel model. © 2010 American Statistical Association.